CES2012 - What to Watch for
This years CES was unofficially kicked off yesterday with the State of Consumer Electronics event. The Chief economist for the Consumer Electronics Association, Shawn DuBravac, spoke on the trends in tech. According to him, the last decade has been about the transition from analog to digital.
I agree with him on this 100%. We have gone from analog to digital TV, then to HDTV, and connected sets. We went from analog phones, to phones riding the digital spectrum, and finally to smartphones. This is a trend that we have seen throughout the industry.
The next step is leveraging this. We are at a point where we have TV sets connected to the web, but all that offers right now is Netflix and a way to check your stocks. Most of them have interfaces that are stuck in the early 2k era, and everyone who has checked their email on a 42” screen knows that, while it’s cool to show off, it’s not a great experience. The same largely goes for tablets and smartphones - we have devices in our pockets that have more power than what sent us to the moon, and we are still doing things the way that we did 10 years ago. I personally refuse to believe that these interfaces are e best we can do. The Kinect has shown us that there is so much more possible, but for e most part we are still slaves to remotes, keyboards, and pointing devices.
While sitting in the event, hearing about how the next decade will be about leveraging this new technology that we were transitioning to over the last decade, something else came to mind - an article recent by Jason Calicanis.
In his post he talks about how the next wave won’t be about lean forward (desktop) vs lean back (watching) interaction with media. It will be about curling up with it. Tablets are unique since they are basically just a screen, and as such, move with you. You are sometimes leaning forward (like I am, wr iting this post on my IPad in a coffee shop at the Palms casino) , other times leaning back (watching Netflix on the plane), and you are sometimes laying on your back holding it over your head (note: dropping an iPad on your face hurts a ton). The interface doesn’t care. Its not just a personal device, it’s almost more personal than your personal computer.
This next decade will be about how we interact with and leverage these devices. Sure, an iPad is cool, and useful, but the interface still could be better. Input methods could improve. Think back to Star Trek, and how they interacted with things. It was rarely as involved as it is now- say a few words, tab a few buttons, and they were on their way. We are getting there, but there is no device that is as frictionless as theirs. Think back to the screens from Minority Report - whose technology leads were also involved in the Natal/Kinect project - and that interaction. It was fluid, smooth, natural. Compare that to where we are today - friction filled interactions that are ofent barely faster than using the controller.
Now that we have these devices, let’s see how we can use them. I will be focusing a lot of my coverage here on things that help us get there; help us leverage the things we have in new and unique ways, and help us generally move forward in technology.
Let the show begin.
